MinbarLibya – International
A masked Libyan gunman stands on a street in the eastern city of Benghazi, early on July 29, 2014, as violence has hit the city, cradle of the 2011 revolution, where weekend fighting between the army and Islamists killed 28 people, mostly soldiers. Militiamen are also battling in the capital Tripoli to flush out fellow former rebels from the hill town of Zintan, southwest of Tripoli, who have controlled the airport for three years. AFP PHOTO / ABDULLAH DOMA        (Photo credit should read ABDULLAH DOMA/AFP/Getty Images)

By Andrew Engel

Andrew Engel

Is post-Qadhafi Libya destined to become a “Somalia on the Mediterranean”? Analyst Andrew Engel studies the causative factors in Libya’s failed transition to democracy.

Libya’s post-revolutionary transition to democracy was not destined to fail. With the ninth largest oil reserves in the world, Libya was well positioned to develop along the lines of resource-rich Persian Gulf states with similarly small populations. But Libya has become a failed state in what could be a prolonged period of civil war.

Fissures have emerged along ethnic, tribal, geographic, and ideological lines against the backdrop of an Islamist versus non-Islamist narrative.

Is Libya destined to become a “Somalia on the Mediterranean”?

In this thoroughly documented Washington Institute study, Libya analyst Andrew Engel examines the causative factors of this failure and offers prescriptive recommendations for creating a coordinated, unified political and security strategy to prepare for a worst-case scenario in Libya.

The Full Report in pdf (ResearchNote24_Libya as a Failed State_Engel-3 )

Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, received his master’s degree in security studies at Georgetown University and currently works as an Africa analyst. He traveled across Libya after its official liberation.

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