By: Suliman Elbayoudi
Not too far from the English vote to exit the European Union came Donald Trump’s victory.There is no doubt there is a bargain between major countries like Yalta Conference of 1945 on the horizon, and that the next game is dividing dominance, especially at our region.
Trump could represent Roosevelt and Lincoln history at once; his ascent is based on the same rules that made Lincoln the United States president, his campaign focused on founding Americans obsessions and the layered structure of his society.
If he succeeded in dealing with the international causes, then he will be the 21st century Roosevelt. The previous era of Barack Obama, the unfolding events of the Arab Spring changed local communities structure in the Middle East and Europe, allowed the Russian bear to emerge as a central player, and that same tendency re-emerged in the UK and France under which they had the widest influence in the Middle East and North Africa.
The Democrats’ administration failed to contain them but played a role in their traditional power areas within a complicated process to reposition ahead of the New Mapping. But the timing wasn’t on their side this time, as reflected by global reactions and messages directed to Trump.
Trump is facing this New Mapping option as an alternative to a third world war whose victims will be hard to estimate, so the area is heading towards a short outburst of violence followed by understandings, confrontations to improve negotiations terms, meanwhile the regional role and its web of interests will be entirely dismantled.
The Brexit requires the UK to revive its significant influence, which it is seeking to accomplish right now while negotiating a withdrawal from the European Union. Fear of the English, American, and Russian dominance prompted France to consider coming back as the historic leader for Europe with ambitions to be part of that transformation as a representative for the European Union. I don’t expect the French president Francois Hollande to remain after 2017 presidential elections. The UK is repositioning with the American eagle, while France is more close to the Russian bear despite different statures.
Such transformations force us to consider Libya’s position within such new moves; it is no secret that Libya is the center of American options in the area, part of Republicans grades, searching for the ultimatum influence in Libya was very obvious in the Republican conference that nominated Trump. Competing over Libya was the slogan for the last phase among international and regional powers. So Libya might replace Syria in the new Yalta. The question is: How Trump would deal with Libya?
We can expect coming scenarios in Libya within three terms; short, medium and long:
The Short Term:
A deadlock will shortly dominate the Libyan cause so they can read, analyze the current complicated situation, and keep track of various overlaps. This will include a short period of renewed violence across Libya, regional powers will play that part along with major companies that will allow new variables on the ground, webs will be regionally and locally dismantled, without forgetting the media in the context of that matrix to be dismantled.
The Medium Term:
Remapping and restructuring the political powers in Libya, where major corporations will play the biggest part. Those who predict the exclusion of the Islamic current is wrong, it will rather be contained. Practically, Islamic powers should strongly seek a mechanism to prove their moderation; blackmailing will be the main feature used by Trump administration to locally and regionally disengage them from extremism powers to guarantee a new spot in the political life.
The Libyan political forces generally will witness profound transformations, elites, and active players will be widely reframed. Major corporations are the center players in Libya; Libyan elites should understand that making concessions regarding the division of wealth is the maximum requirements in this medium term for Trump and his clients in Libya.
The Long Term:
Reshaping contexts and values in Libya transforms into the participatory democratic environment, new leaders will be rephrased based on solidarity concepts and promotion of peace in the Middle East. Across all previous levels, regional role and its players will be disengaged and removed along with extremism powers.
It is worth mentioning that the great powers will promote capitalism in Libya, cooperating with the new formula reframed from the ruling political and cultural elites directed at the public opinion, to impose total liberation of the economy, and complete freedom of capitals from social responsibilities.
Trump is looking to promote his national economy, so supporting that orientation won’t contradict with the social values that put him in the presidency chair, but will further empower his economy.
Such analysis is based on latest approaches of American policies and how it deals with the hot files of (Iran, Syria, Ukraine, Iraq, and Gulf states), and the analysis of the UK policies after Brexit, perhaps its ambassador’s moves in Libya reflects the kingdom’s ambitions.
Suliman Elbayoudi – A Libyan Writer